Fewer Russians Willing to Join the Front

According to an analysis of federal budget data by journalists from the independent publication Meduza, the stream of new contract soldiers into the Russian army has sharply declined. The report reveals a significant drop in the number of new contracts signed: from 93,000 in the second quarter of 2024 to approximately 50,000 in the third quarter.

Janis Kluge, a senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, corroborated these findings. His calculations imply that Russian authorities recruited an average of about 700 new contract soldiers per day during the third quarter, down from 1,020 per day in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Russian army losses have reached unprecedented levels in the country's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In November 2024, British intelligence estimated Russian casualties at 1,500 personnel per day, including 300 fatalities. According to Meduza, irretrievable losses — which include fatalities and severely wounded soldiers unable to return to duty — range from 600 to 750 per day. These figures barely cover ongoing losses and hinder the military’s ability to build significant reserves.

The decline in enlistment comes despite a doubling of the signing bonuses for contractees. Experts suggest the drop may stem from mounting casualties and the exhaustion of the pool of individuals willing to risk their lives for financial incentives.