April 07, 2022

Is This the Plan?


Is This the Plan?
The wreckage of Russian military vehicles in Ukraine, March 2022. Ministry of the Interior of Ukraine.

The fighting in Ukraine seems to have reached a lull; the offensive action quixotically deemed a "defensive special operation" has stalled. Russian forces have pulled back from the outskirts of Kyiv and have begun to redeploy, consolidating their hold on territory they've already gained. Some say that Russia is preparing for a new offensive, one with renewed vigor and discipline. But for now, things are quiet, save for aimless missile strikes and bombing runs that continue to cause civilian casualties. Maybe the tide has turned. Has Russia been humiliated, and is now too prideful to turn back? Was it foiled in the face of a heroic defense?

Putin says no.

In fact, according to him, things are going exactly to plan. And this despite the heavily-publicized images, like the one above, of charred tank skeletons, mangled remains of helicopters, and captured state-of-the-art, top-secret command centers. In spite of all this, he says, the plan is in motion and moving forward just as intended.

While we should take Putin's assertions with a grain of salt (remember when the massing of Russian troops was just for "exercises"?), what if he's telling the truth? One possibility, one which hasn't been much discussed, is that Putin is aiming for what some call a "frozen conflict."

Frozen conflicts occur when one nation invades another, but not all the way. The aggressor sets up shop in part of the defender's country, calls for peace talks, and gets a ceasefire implemented. The territory the aggressor has already taken remains theirs, de facto. The defender has now lost a portion of their territory, and their internal security is almost completely compromised. Skirmishes will likely break out along the cease-fire line as the invasion is held in international bureaucratic limbo.

And Russia's got a history of doing this in the post-Soviet era. In fact, it could be said that Russia is the undisputed king of the frozen conflict.

In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia (on remarkably similar grounds to its 2022 invasion of Ukraine), it quickly occupied the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both in Georgia's north. After two weeks, a ceasefire was called, and Russia held on to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which have declared independence and have been recognized as sovereign states by Russia. Georgia was effectively forced out. A textbook frozen conflict.

It's happened on Ukrainian soil, too: After 2014–15, when Russia occupied the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics and the Crimean peninsula following Ukraine's Maidan Revolution, it graciously agreed to a ceasefire with Ukraine. But it didn't withdraw; instead, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea all served as jumping-off points for Russian troops for this year's invasion. Russia essentially gained a handful of allies and strategic sites at the expense of Ukraine for little more than a slap on the wrist, or even accolades in the international community for its benevolent acts of mercy.

These precedents, among others (dating all the way back to the Russia-supported Transnistria ambiguity in the 1990s), beg the question: could something like this happen in Ukraine? And if so, what would it look like?

Let's say for the sake of argument that the next military offensive gains some ground before floundering. At that point, Russia sues for peace, which Ukraine eagerly accepts in an attempt to stop the atrocities happening on their soil. More of Ukraine's territory is brought under Russian occupation.

There's at least one good reason to think that Putin might be opting for a frozen conflict in this case, besides the fact that he's done it before (so many times that all these frozen-conflict countries have their own little international club). Any frozen conflict on Ukrainian soil would almost guarantee that Ukraine would be excluded from the EU, NATO, Schengen, and other international diplomatic schemes that it's been trying to enter for decades.

When countries try to enter into these kinds of association agreements, they're required to undergo a process called "accession." Essentially, officials from the organization give the country that wants to join a list of metrics the country must meet before it will be accepted. For the Balkans, a region with a handful of countries, like Ukraine, that have recently been applying for membership and greater cooperation, this has been things like increased inclusion of women and ethnic minorities in government structures, a higher prevalence of educational opportunities, a drop in levels of corruption, or electricity and water access to the majority of the population.

If Russia creates a frozen conflict in Ukraine's territory, it would be almost guaranteed that resolving that conflict would be a precondition to accession to any international organization. Ukraine would be charged with trying to fix the conflict. And with Russia playing hardball, they wouldn't let that happen.

Of course, only time will tell. But if the past is any guide, Putin's long game may be surprising for us observers far from the front lines.

You Might Also Like

Like this post? Get a weekly email digest + member-only deals

Some of Our Books

Okudzhava Bilingual

Okudzhava Bilingual

Poems, songs and autobiographical sketches by Bulat Okudzhava, the king of the Russian bards. 
Faith & Humor: Notes from Muscovy

Faith & Humor: Notes from Muscovy

A book that dares to explore the humanity of priests and pilgrims, saints and sinners, Faith & Humor has been both a runaway bestseller in Russia and the focus of heated controversy – as often happens when a thoughtful writer takes on sacred cows. The stories, aphorisms, anecdotes, dialogues and adventures in this volume comprise an encyclopedia of modern Russian Orthodoxy, and thereby of Russian life.
The Samovar Murders

The Samovar Murders

The murder of a poet is always more than a murder. When a famous writer is brutally stabbed on the campus of Moscow’s Lumumba University, the son of a recently deposed African president confesses, and the case assumes political implications that no one wants any part of.
Life Stories: Original Fiction By Russian Authors

Life Stories: Original Fiction By Russian Authors

The Life Stories collection is a nice introduction to contemporary Russian fiction: many of the 19 authors featured here have won major Russian literary prizes and/or become bestsellers. These are life-affirming stories of love, family, hope, rebirth, mystery and imagination, masterfully translated by some of the best Russian-English translators working today. The selections reassert the power of Russian literature to affect readers of all cultures in profound and lasting ways. Best of all, 100% of the profits from the sale of this book are going to benefit Russian hospice—not-for-profit care for fellow human beings who are nearing the end of their own life stories.
At the Circus (bilingual)

At the Circus (bilingual)

This wonderful novella by Alexander Kuprin tells the story of the wrestler Arbuzov and his battle against a renowned American wrestler. Rich in detail and characterization, At the Circus brims with excitement and life. You can smell the sawdust in the big top, see the vivid and colorful characters, sense the tension build as Arbuzov readies to face off against the American.
The Little Humpbacked Horse (bilingual)

The Little Humpbacked Horse (bilingual)

A beloved Russian classic about a resourceful Russian peasant, Vanya, and his miracle-working horse, who together undergo various trials, exploits and adventures at the whim of a laughable tsar, told in rich, narrative poetry.
Stargorod: A Novel in Many Voices

Stargorod: A Novel in Many Voices

Stargorod is a mid-sized provincial city that exists only in Russian metaphorical space. It has its roots in Gogol, and Ilf and Petrov, and is a place far from Moscow, but close to Russian hearts. It is a place of mystery and normality, of provincial innocence and Black Earth wisdom. Strange, inexplicable things happen in Stargorod. So do good things. And bad things. A lot like life everywhere, one might say. Only with a heavy dose of vodka, longing and mystery.
The Frogs Who Begged for a Tsar (bilingual)

The Frogs Who Begged for a Tsar (bilingual)

The fables of Ivan Krylov are rich fonts of Russian cultural wisdom and experience – reading and understanding them is vital to grasping the Russian worldview. This new edition of 62 of Krylov’s tales presents them side-by-side in English and Russian. The wonderfully lyrical translations by Lydia Razran Stone are accompanied by original, whimsical color illustrations by Katya Korobkina.
Dostoyevsky Bilingual

Dostoyevsky Bilingual

Bilingual series of short, lesser known, but highly significant works that show the traditional view of Dostoyevsky as a dour, intense, philosophical writer to be unnecessarily one-sided. 
Tolstoy Bilingual

Tolstoy Bilingual

This compact, yet surprisingly broad look at the life and work of Tolstoy spans from one of his earliest stories to one of his last, looking at works that made him famous and others that made him notorious. 
Murder at the Dacha

Murder at the Dacha

Senior Lieutenant Pavel Matyushkin has a problem. Several, actually. Not the least of them is the fact that a powerful Soviet boss has been murdered, and Matyushkin's surly commander has given him an unreasonably short time frame to close the case.
Marooned in Moscow

Marooned in Moscow

This gripping autobiography plays out against the backdrop of Russia's bloody Civil War, and was one of the first Western eyewitness accounts of life in post-revolutionary Russia. Marooned in Moscow provides a fascinating account of one woman's entry into war-torn Russia in early 1920, first-person impressions of many in the top Soviet leadership, and accounts of the author's increasingly dangerous work as a journalist and spy, to say nothing of her work on behalf of prisoners, her two arrests, and her eventual ten-month-long imprisonment, including in the infamous Lubyanka prison. It is a veritable encyclopedia of life in Russia in the early 1920s.

About Us

Russian Life is a publication of a 30-year-young, award-winning publishing house that creates a bimonthly magazine, books, maps, and other products for Russophiles the world over.

Latest Posts

Our Contacts

Russian Life
73 Main Street, Suite 402
Montpelier VT 05602

802-223-4955