How Friendly the Sky?

On March 18, an aging, 48-seat Stavropol Airlines An-24 turboprop plane took off from Stavropol Airport, en route to Trabzon, on the Northern Coast of Turkey. Thirty-seven minutes into the flight, the tail of the plane broke off in midair, causing the plane to plunge from the sky, killing all 50 passengers and crew. The air accident was the worst domestic airline disaster in Russia since the December 7, 1995 crash of a Tupolev-154 in the Russian Far East, which killed 97 persons. This tragic accident provides a graphic backdrop for this month’s Practical Traveler column on air safety in Russia – an article planned well in advance of the Stavropol crash.

The root of the problem

Troubles with Russian domestic aviation began in 1991. Aeroflot, long subsidized as the monopolist state airline, had been financially crippled by the disintegration of the Soviet economy, in particular by hyper inflation, which put even Aeroflot’s low prices for domestic air travel beyond the reach of most Russians. Just five days prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, Aeroflot announced that over a third of its fleet was grounded for lack of spare parts and fuel and that it was tripling prices to ward off financial disaster. The fleet was aged and the company’s safety record was already on the decline.

Then, starting in 1992, after the Soviet Union’s collapse, Aeroflot was divided up into its regional administrations (and those of new, former USSR states). By 1994 there were nearly 286 ‘airlines’ (‘operators’ is probably a better term – even to this day, there are only about 50 operators serious enough to be called airlines) in Russia where once there had been just one. By 1995, the number had risen to over 400, some 90 of which would be suspended in that year for safety violations. Interestingly, alongside this rise in the number of carriers, was a rapid decline in air passengers.  In 1987 there were 119 mn passengers on Aeroflot, in 1993, there were just 37.5 mn on all domestic airlines.

The break-up of Aeroflot was accompanied by a drastic, eight-fold increase in fatality and crash rates in the former USSR. New, upstart airlines did anything and everything to make a profit, including gross overloading of planes, flying without sufficient fuel or without adequate technical checks. Indifference to cabin safety procedures was rampant.

Most importantly, oversight organizations which had previously worked with military-like precision to ensure reliable, regimented safety procedures in pre-1991 Aeroflot, were unable to keep up with the activities of regional carriers – in fact there are still about one-third the number of inspectors the Russian industry needs. Combine this with the fact that over half of Russia’s aircraft have been in service too long and need replacement, and you have a recipe for rampant air disasters.

Which is exactly what Russia got. Whereas in the late 1980s and early 1990s, figures for Soviet air fatalities were comparable to US numbers – about 1 death for every 2 million passengers, by 1993, the number for the CIS states had risen to over 4 deaths per million – an eight-fold increase. In 1994, there were 20 civilian air crashes in Russia, killing 327 passengers. In 1995 there were again 20 air disasters, killing 292 persons (plus another 300 on the ground). In 1996, the number of crashes and fatalities both declined to 18 and 246, respectively. By way of perspective, the International Airline Passengers Association estimates that, on average, there are some 80 airline accidents worldwide each year, and 1417 fatalities.

By this time, it is worth noting, Aeroflot as it was no longer existed. While many domestic operators flew jets with Aeroflot logos on their sides, the only air company authorized to use the Aeroflot name is Aeroflot-Russian International Airlines. Mainly an international carrier (responsible for 90% of Russia’s international flights), it also operates on the main trunk routes within Russia and, since June of last year, has partnered up with Transaero to “consolidate efforts in order to cut costs and to push foreign competitors from the Russian market.”

What is to be done?

In late 1995, President Boris Yeltsin announced in a news conference that, since “flight safety hasn’t improved in 1995,” top officials must “take urgent organizational, administrative and technical measures to enhance flight safety.”

What this has meant in practical terms is very little, as faced with a lack of funds, and a proliferation of shady businessmen, the Russian FAA is having trouble getting its new safety-focused projects off the ground. In spite of this discomforting news, at present, official, government bodies appear to be mainly sanguine about the state of safety in Russia’s skies. The Russian Federal Aviation Authority stresses the overall safety of regular FSU flights. Besides blithely stating that, “Crashes happen,” the Russian FAA’s spokesman Dennis Cooper refused to go on record warning Americans against flying Russian carriers. His optimism is supported by the US Embassy in Moscow which has also issued no warnings against American citizens flying Russian-owned airlines. Still, the Russian FAA recently published a list of international commercial airlines with bad safety records in 1996. The Russian carriers on the list were: Krus Air, Vnukovo Airlines, Tyumen-aviatrans, Vostsibero and even the Russian Air Force.

What you can do

While there has been a significant rise in air disasters in Russia, the statistics blur important distinctions – the crash of a chartered helicopter and a scheduled jet are both termed accidents. And, given the demanding weather and geographic conditions in Russia (and 10 years of tumultuous social, economic and political changes), it could be argued that one would expect worse results.

In any event, the traveler’s best defense is to gather as much information as possible, and to not take safety for granted when flying domestically in Russia (or anywhere, for that matter, as recent US press revelations on the FAA and domestic commuter airlines show). If you must fly domestic carriers, here are some tips from seasoned domestic travelers:

( Stick with the top domestic carriers, like Transaero and Aeroflot. Not only do they have the best safety records and, in many events, newer and foreign craft, they also are both gaining high marks for customer service.

( Stay away from airlines which the Russian FAA has said are unsafe. Be most wary of very local, commuter airlines. As anywhere in the world, these tend to be most accident prone.

( If something seems amiss, e.g. if the plane is being overloaded or normal safety precautions don’t seem to be being followed, don’t get on the plane.

( If you are traveling as a group, look into the cost and viability of charters.

( Some travelers are saying that certain Russian planes are unsafe to fly on. For example, the Tu-154, a workhorse of domestic carriers, has developed a reputation of late as accident prone (this was the plane involved in the December 1995 and August 1996 flights). The Russian FAA even suspended many such planes in a recent crackdown. But any such generalizations should be taken with a grain of salt. In reality, most all Russian airplane models are highly regarded and have proven themselves in the difficult Russian environment.

( If at all possible, buy tickets for FSU destinations in FSU, because Russian/CIS travel agents have a truer picture of which flights and seats are really available, than thei international counterparts who must use a less-than perfect schedule. If you must buy your ticket outside the Russia/CIS and such a flight or seat does not show up on the Russian schedule, you will be in no way refunded orhelped. But if you are very lucky, both your flight and seat will exist in the same travel universe.

( Know your airports. If you are flying into Russia or the CIS on a international carrier and then switching to a domestic flight, you will have to get yourself and your luggage through customs and baggage at Sheremetyevo-2, before connecting to the domestic flight at Sheremetyevo-1, an entirely separate airport. Be aware of this when arranging connecting flights and leave plenty of time.

( Prepare yourself for endless delays. All of Moscow’s five airports are chronically understaffed, crowded and poorly managed. Arriving at the airport for even domestic flights 2-3 hours before take-off is not as strange as it may seem.

Bykovo airport: Flights to Central Russia, Siberia and Southern Russia, as well as charter flights to Central Asia. Airport: 558-4738. Transport information: 558-4056.

Domodedovo airport: Flights to Russia and CIS, as well as charter flights to Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Arab Emirates etc. Airport: 323-8832

Sheremetyevo-1: Flights to Russia, CIS, Israel, Europe and Los Angeles. Airport information: 578-7518.

Sheremetyevo-2: Flights to nearly all major American and European cities. The airport also boasts a half-hourly shuttle from Metro stop Rechnoi Vokzal for R6,000. Arrival information: 578-7518. Airport information: 578-5970.

Vnukovo airport: Flights to Russian Far East, Siberia, Northern Caucasus, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. Also has charter flights to Germany, Bulgaria, Greece, Middle East.