Economist Sergei Aleksashenko has served as Russia’s deputy minister of finance (1993-1995) and as first deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank (1995-1998). After subsequently working in the private sector, he returned to academia, heading macroeconomic research at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics and serving as a scholar in residence at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Moscow Center. His English-language publications include Putin’s Counterrevolution (Brookings Institution Press, 2018). He currently resides in the United States, where he works as an independent consultant and frequent commentator on the Russian economy. In this interview, which appeared on the Утро Февраля (February Morning) YouTube channel (utro02.tv), he discusses how the war and sanctions have impacted the Russian economy and explores future scenarios.
What sets the Putin economy apart from a normal economy?
There is the 2000-2008 Putin economy, the 2008-2013 one, the 2013-2015 one, and even a pre-2020 one. Then there’s the post-February 24 Putin economy. They are all different. The political regime has been changing, and its economy and economic policies have also been changing.
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After sinking to below $80/barrel, as we go to press oil prices are rising after news of an OPEC+ (which includes Russia) production target cutback.
Vladimir Yevtushenkov, one of Russia’s richest businessmen, was placed under house arrest for several months in 2014 and had his shares in the oil company Bashneft seized after he was accused of money laundering; top petrochemical executive Yakov Goldovsky was convicted in a corruption case in 2002; media mogul Vladimir Gusinsky, who repeatedly clashed with the Kremlin, was forced into exile in 2001.
“If the state says we need to give it up, we’ll give it up” Financial Times October 24, 2008.
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