Closing the Polls?

Levada tagged as foreign agent

In 2003, sociologists at the Levada Center, an independent public opinion research organization that has been producing polling data since the perestroika era, survived a hostile takeover. More recently they have been accused of inflating President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings, which topped 80 percent following the annexation of Crimea.

But that apparently was not enough to save them. In early September, Russia’s justice ministry added the Levada Center to its ever growing register of “foreign agents” – organizations that ostensibly carry out political activities while receiving funds from abroad. The decision effectively bars the group from dealing with state institutions and creates a public image of them as mercenaries paid by foreign powers to undermine Russian state security.

Needless to say, neither of these consequences are compatible with the role of pollster publishing regular dispatches on everything from political preferences to how often Russians use the internet.

The Levada Center had already stopped receiving Western grants for public opinion research, yet the government has apparently taken issue with its commercial contracts or ties with foreign researchers, the group’s chief, Lev Gudkov, wrote in September.

“Don’t think that this repression only threatens sociology. When they are done with sociology, they will move on to history, economics, genetics…” Gudkov wrote in a scathing Facebook post (as Levada’s website was being hacked at the time). “We are proud to be able to work with foreign partners: it’s not a reason to discredit us as an agent, but evidence of the professionalism of our research.”

Why was a group of social scientists, whose findings were only published in independent media and never reached a wide audience, targeted? There is no clear answer, yet some say the Kremlin is unwise to suppress unwelcome signals from society at such a critical time, when feedback from those suffering from the worst economic crisis since the 1990s is crucial.

If Levada closes, Russia’s leaders will have no independent source of information about what Russians really think. Only obedient state pollsters will remain, and protests have been banned, with violators facing criminal prosecution. Meanwhile, this fall’s election results were based on a record low turnout. How will leaders know how citizens struggling with dwindling incomes will react to forthcoming cost-cutting reforms?

“The signals that please the ear and eye of those in power might actually be false,” Vedomosti columnist Vladimir Gelman wrote in an editorial.

Despite the upbeat images found on television and in state newspapers, some in the government admit that the situation has gone from bad to worse for the average Ivan. “Unfortunately, poverty in the country has been getting steadily worse since 2014,” said deputy prime minister Olga Golodets, who oversees the health and social services spheres. Unlike in other countries battling poverty, in Russia “poverty has hit working people,” she said, due to wages that don’t reflect labor costs. Real average income fell by 7 percent in July versus 2015. Today every sixth Russian lives below the poverty line, which this year is 9,776 rubles (a mere $157) per month.

As 2017 looms, the newly elected parliament is likely to focus on unpopular cost-cutting measures that will surely hit some of Russia’s least protected populations. Already, the government is looking to scrap cost of living increases for pensions, instead making a one-time payoff to retirees. If the Levada Center closes to avoid the distasteful label of “foreign agent,” it’s not clear whether anyone will ask what pensioners really think about the change. Or anything else.