Looking for Athenian Gold

When it comes to the Olympics, Bishop Ethlelbert Talbot’s 1908 statement, that “the important thing in these Olympiads is not so much winning as taking part,” has long-ceased to be true. Any country going to Athens thinks first about the number of medals its team will bring home. But of course this is not stated openly; that would be bad form. Yet there is no denying that the summer Olympics are a political as much as an athletic event. Fans triumph and cry (and some curse), people enjoy the beauty of sport as did the Greeks millennia ago. But, in the end, everyone wants to know who will beat whom, which tiny country will upset a political powerhouse on the track, field or in the pool.

The desire to show other countries ‘kuzkina mat.’ is especially true for Russia, whose golden Olympic history came to an abrupt end with the breakup of the Soviet Union. Before the split, the USSR consistently brought home the most Olympic medals. But in recent games, it has vied with Germany and China for second place behind the US.

So, what can Russia reckon on in Greece? Recently, Victor Khotochkin, vice-president of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) said in an interview that Russia, by the most pessimist forecast, could expect to win 23 gold medals; Russian athletes brought home 32 golds from Sydney in 2000 and 26 from Atlanta in 1996. “The target is to win what we must win,” Khotochkin told Izvestia. “And our main competitors are the Americans and the Chinese. And the Chinese team is strong in the sports that we have always dominated. Like diving.”

But that is a worst case scenario. The ROC’s leadership obviously hopes for the best – estimated at 40 gold medals. “The results shown by teams a year prior to the Olympics have always been an exact indicator of the quality of preparation for the games,” said Anatoly Kolesov, the 1964 Olympic champion in Greco-Roman wrestling who heads the Athens 2004 Working Group, in an interview with Vremya Novostei. “Therefore the estimates made by our group based on the results of the 2003 season, allow us to hope for this quantity of gold.”

Opinions differ, but most experts seem to agree that Russians will perform well in all wrestling events, boxing, weightlifting, rhythmic and artistic gymnastics, synchronized swimming, trampoline, fencing and rowing. At least 460 athletes will represent Russia in Athens. Who, then, should we expect to see on the pedestal?

Russian freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestlers won 11 places at the Athens Olympiad – seven for men and four for women. This makes Russia the only country other than Greece to have maximum possible representation for its wrestlers in Athens. Russia’s main competitors, the US and Ukraine, got one and two fewer slots than Russia, respectively. In 2003, Russian men brought home two gold medals from the World Championships, while Russian women won two silver and two bronze medals. Experts agree that Russia has two teams which could bring home 10 Olympic golds – wrestling and track and field. As for judo – the “presidential” sport that has flourished in Russia of late, thanks to its connection with the Kremlin – there are high hopes for 22-year-old Khasan Baroev, nicknamed “the second Karelin” (Alexander Karelin was a three-time Olympic champion in Greco-Roman wrestling).

At the Sydney Olympics, the Russian team took both golds in rhythmic gymnastics – for individual and for group performance. The top Russian gymnasts in Athens will be four-time world champion and Sydney bronze medalist Alina Kabaeva and three-time world champion Irina Chashchina. In May of 2004, at the Russian Championship for Rhythmic Gymnastics, Kabaeva and Chashchina split the gold medals, taking turns standing atop the pedestal. Kabaeva was first with hoop and ball, while Chashchina took silver; Chashchina won with club and ribbon, leaving the silver for Kabaeva. In artistic gymnastics, 25-year-old Svetlana Khorkina, who won her third World Championship in Anaheim last August, is a likely winner.

Four years ago, the Russian boxing team came to Sydney in full complement (12 athletes) and brought home two gold, three silver and two bronze medals, leading even the Cubans as a team. At the European championship this year in Croatia, the Russian team took 9 of the 11 medals possible.

Yet Russia’s chief boxing coach, Nikolai Khromov, said that recent victories could have a negative affect on the team’s performance in Athens: “I would not rule out that, at the Olympics, they will try to hold us back using all approved methods... Other countries also invest money in the development of this discipline and they are unlikely to do this without end if the medals always disappear into the same pockets – someone else’s.” The boxer to watch is Oleg Saitov, who took gold in Sydney in the 67 kilo (welterweight) class and received the prestigious Wal Barker Cup as the best boxer in Sydney.

Weightlifter Alexei Petrov took the bronze in Sydney and is a top contender for gold in Athens. Oleg Perepechenov, who did not take part in the world championship because of an injury, has a lift record 30 kilos higher than what the champion there achieved. If he can recover in time for Athens, he will be one to watch. As for the women, Russian athletes are unlikely to defeat China’s athletes, despite Russia’s traditional strength with the bar.

Sydney trampoline champions Alexander Moskalenko and Irina Karavaeva are unlikely to be as successful in Athens. Moskalenko might not have enough time to make a full recovery from injuries. He is old (35) for competitive sports, and has been nicknamed “The Dinosaur,” but he will certainly give any competitor a run for the gold.

Four years ago, when the trampoline first became an Olympic sport, Russian athletes had no rivals, but today some serious competitors have emerged – the Russians left the world championship in Hannover last October without gold.

In rowing, kayak and canoeing, Russian sport federations forecast gold, silver and bronze medals, respectively. But, if one is to judge from the results of world championships, then out of 26 medal sets, Russia’s only hope is Maxim Opalev, who took the silver in Sydney.

The Russian team’s top fencer is Stanislav Pozdnyakov, a four-time Olympic champion, seven-time world champion and five-time winner of the World Cup in saber fencing. Sergei Sharikov, also a saber-fencer, is another athlete to watch. Both Pozdnyakov and Sharikov took gold medals in Sydney and nothing should stop them from stringing fortune on their blades again this year. Russian epee fencers have also shown excellent results of late, taking the team gold at the fencing World Cup in France in 2004.

In synchronized swimming, the duet of Anastasia Davydova and Anastasia Yermakova is a favorite. At the European Championships in Madrid held in May, the two took gold both in pairs (receiving a 10 and six 9.9’s for technical difficulty as well as three 10’s and four 9.9’s for artistic expression), and as part of the Russian eight-athlete team. For the men, the duo of Sergei Anikin and Vasily Lisovsky placed second in the synchronized three meter springboard at Madrid, so they have reason to hope for silver or bronze in Athens.

Russia has its weak points – sports in which it has never shone. Although even here there could be some pleasant surprises. For example, at the Sydney Olympics, Yegeny Kafelnikov won the gold – something that, frankly, no one had expected. Kafelnikov has retired, and there is reason to hope that Marat Safin could repeat Kafelnikov’s feat. Until recently, Safin was working through a long recovery from a string of injuries, but his performance at the Australian Open, where he reached the finals, is reason for hope. There, in a series of thrilling matches, he defeated top-ranked Andy Roddick, as  well as Andre Agassi.

In women’s tennis, hopes are even higher. Russia’s women have been soaring lately – witness their performance at the French Open (see page 13). Expect Anastasia Myskina, Nadezhda Petrova, Maria Sharapova and Yelena Dementieva (silver in 2000) to give American athletes some serious competition.

Despite forecasts by the Russian table tennis federation that the team could take a bronze medal, experts do not expect this prediction to bear out.

In swimming, Russians are doting on the 33-year-old, four-time Olympic champion Alexander Popov, for whom the coming games will probably be his last. But Greece’s failure to build a roof over the swimming pool in Athens could be a problem for the Russians, who are used to covered pools.

In team sports, the men’s basketball team did not qualify for Athens, so Andrei Kirilenko of the Utah Jazz, who played in Sydney, will not be able to perform this year on the Olympic stage. The women’s team did qualify, however, and does have a chance at a medal, but not likely gold.

Both the men’s and women’s volleyball teams could offer some surprises and even grab some medals; both came away from Sydney with silver. The women’s volleyball team proved its strength in Tokyo this May when it won a crushing victory over Japan at the Olympic elimination match, taking third place.

In cycling, one should not hope for miracles, such as the one performed by Vyacheslav Yekimov in Sydney, the 34-year-old who surprised everyone by taking the gold in individual time trial road cycling.

Ready, Steady, Go!

The climate in Athens will likely be a factor for all athletes, but some observers feel that Russia’s athletes may have greater difficulty than most adapting to temperatures at or above 40o Celsius. The organization of the Games could be another problem. As in Sydney, Athens begins with sports in which Russia is traditionally weak. It is psychologically difficult to start the medal race by playing catch-up. In Sydney, after the first few days, Russia was ranked in the teens in the medals race, and then started slowly catching up, finally ending in second place. The team’s major victories came only in the last two days of the Games. This reality is actually a reflection of the Russian team’s greatest strength: its athletic diversity. In 2000, the US won 70% of its medals in just two sports: track and field and swimming. But Russia has a much more diverse squad than either the US or Germany; there are many more sports where a Russian athlete may end up on the top of the podium.

But, of course, only time will tell. The Olympic flame arrives in Moscow on July 3. Among those who will carry the flame during the Moscow stage of the world relay will be Vyacheslav Fetisov, head of the State Sports Committee, two-time winner of the Stanley Cup and former NHL star. One can never count on “karma” to win the day, but no one here will complain if some of Fetisov’s rubs off on the Russian team during the passing of the torch.  RL