Assessing the Damage

On November 23, 2013, in the build-up to the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a resolution whereby the state will pay out R4 million ($125,000) to any Russian athlete who wins a gold medal at the Sochi Games (silver will bring R2.5 million, bronze R1.7 million). So what is the potential “damage” these awards might do to the Russian budget?

Odds are high that the “damage” to the state will be greater than it was four years ago. Andrei Kolesnikov of Kommersant has covered several recent Olympics. “It would be hard for Russia to do worse than in Vancouver,” he said. There, Russia finished eleventh in the overall medal count – seen by many as a humiliation. What is more, the team from one of the world’s wintriest countries brought home just three Winter Olympics golds – half as many as were won by South Korea.

Host teams always do better than their average at the Olympics, and the Russian team surely dreams of the sort of success enjoyed by Great Britain in London’s 2012 Summer Olympics. After the 2010 games, President Vladimir Putin made a very clear statement of intent:

“After Vancouver and our humble results at this Olympiad, I already hear ideas to the effect that it’s not the most important thing to be among the leaders in Sochi, it’s just about putting together a decent performance. So I must tell you this is not true. One enters such competitions not just to work up a sweat, but rather to win. And millions of sports fans in our country expect a victory from our national team. In any case, the (Russian) team must be among the leaders.”

Hockey legend and former Sports Minister Vyacheslav Fetisov echoed this sentiment, telling Komsomolskaya Pravda that “a lot of money, hopes and expectations have been invested in the Sochi Olympics. We don’t have the right to lose at home.”

The new President of the Russian Olympics Committee, Alexander Zhukov, has set the bar high: the Russian team’s goal is 14 gold medals and first place in the overall medals ranking. “Statistically, the ‘home walls’ advantage helps (a team) win 30 percent more medals. So we will fight for victory, despite the fact that the Norwegians now have 17 uslovny (hypothetical) gold medals. But they basically win in just two sports.”

Zhukov said he has seen “positive dynamics” in speed skating, short-track, bobsleigh, and, of course, in the biathlon, where Zhukov said Russia boasts “a very strong men’s team,” and the “Russian women’s biathlon team is not bad either,” which will garner Russia “two, if not three golds in biathlon.”

Of course, such an upbeat prognosis says more about political than sports realities; it is reminiscent of Soviet era propaganda slogans and hardly based on a sober evaluation of Russia’s medal potential. For proof, one needs look no further than Russia’s no-nonsense Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko. Back in 2010, speaking at the State Duma, Mutko said off-handedly that Russia would “win” the Sochi games, be competitive in 11 sports, and claim “14-15 medals.”

Such pie-in-the-sky thinking was understandable – after Vancouver, Russian lawmakers wanted Mutko’s political scalp, as well as that of then president of the Russian Olympic Committee, Leonid Tyagachev. They ousted Tyagachev, but the shrewd Mutko survived. Now, almost four years later, he’s singing a different tune.

On October 12, 2013, once again back at the State Duma, he admitted: “A fourth or fifth place (in the overall medal count) would be a good result, making it to the top three – an outstanding one.”

Whence such modesty? Follow the money. Financing of sports has unquestionably risen since Vancouver, but, as Mutko noted, “you can’t prepare a top-level athlete in an hour.”

Dmitry Medvedev, when still president, observed that the Soviet system for developing athletes had “exhausted itself.” But was a new “capitalist” system put in place, one that is as successful as the Soviet one? The answer is a resounding “No.”

In fact, Medvedev’s “money-for medals” decree (which is on par with one in 2010, when winning athletes were awarded €100,000 for gold, €60,000 for silver, €40,000 for bronze, as well as luxury gifts like Audis) speaks volumes to the methods being used by the country’s rulers and sports CEOs to rebuild Russia’s status as a sports powerhouse. But money alone can’t buy medals, especially when coaches must deal with multimillionaire NHL stars. (In November, Sports Express predicted that NHL stars would comprise about 40 percent of the Russian hockey squad in Sochi. Vladislav Tretyak, President of the Russian Hockey Federation, said the 25-player roster will be announced on January 7, 2014, otherwise known as Orthodox Christmas Day).

A New Kind of Hockey

In Sochi, gold in ice hockey would be the ultimate prize, although gold in women’s curling is probably more likely (the Russian women’s team won the European Championship in 2006 and 2012).

As in Canada, in Russia ice hockey is almost a religion, attracting the close attention of political leaders as diverse as Leonid Brezhnev and Vladimir Putin.* A triumph in Sochi could help eclipse any other potential setback, while also making up for the disaster in Vancouver (where the team, headed by coach Vyacheslav Bykov, was destroyed by Canada, 7-3 in the quarterfinals).

The last time Russia (as the Unified Team) won Olympic gold in hockey was in 1992 in Albertville, when the team was led by legendary coach Viktor Tikhonov. Yet after 1992 Tikhonov’s well-greased “Red Machine” fell apart. Soviet stars fled to the NHL in huge numbers and the high turnover among head coaches of the national team was not conducive to teambuilding – it was said that the famous Soviet pyatyorka (“five”) Fetisov-Kasatonov-Makarov-Larionov-Krutov could pass the puck to each other with their eyes closed. The best post-Soviet national coaches could hope for was to round up second-tier players from the Russian leagues and perhaps cherry-pick a few top Russian players from the NHL, who would inevitably arrive from North America at the eleventh hour.

In 1998, in Nagano, the team led by coach Vladimir Yurzinov and Pavel Bure, the “Russian rocket,” was in top form, but they let their guard down too early and lost to the Czech Republic in the finals. In 2006, in Torino, Russia again lost to the Czechs, but this time in the bronze medal match, leading to a dismal fourth place finish. In late 2008 and 2009, coach Vyacheslav Bykov helped the team regain some glory with two World Championship wins in a row. Some saw this as a portent of greater things to come, but Vancouver dashed such hopes.

A fiasco at the Olympics is not something Russians easily forgive. Speaking off-the record, a colleague from Sports Express recalled how Bykov, summoned for a dressing down at the post-Olympic session of the Russian Ice Hockey Federation, was yelling so loudly that his voice could be heard in the corridor. In fact, after Vancouver, Bykov predicted that both Russian fans and the Hockey Federation bosses would seek retribution. “Let’s put guillotines and scaffolds up on Red Square. We have 25 people in the squad – let’s finish them all off,” he snapped at reporters.

In 2011, after Russia finished fourth in the World Championships, Bykov was dismissed. His replacement was Zinetula Bilyaletdinov (aka “Bill”), a successful ethnic-Tatar coach whose appointment was approved by Tatarstan’s President Rustam Minikhanov and President Putin. Bill was deemed a savior after leading Russia to a 10-0 record at the 2012 World Championships (after winning nine matches, Russia defeated Slovakia 6-2 in the finals).

The Russian hockey squad seemed poised to coolly pick-up a gold in Sochi, so convincing was Bill’s new style, but in 2013 a faux pas at the Worlds in Finland and Sweden (Russia lost 3-8 to the US in the quarterfinals) cast doubt upon the rosy Olympic future. Bilyaletdinov somehow kept his post and was given a second chance for Sochi, but this chance would be his last. Legendary Soviet hockey player and authoritative hockey observer Boris Mayorov noted that, “The coaching general staff should stay, for we can’t really change it after the very first setback or the whole world will laugh at us. What we do need to change is our style of play – no other world team plays so passively and defensively now.”

Bill took the post-Finland criticism constructively, cautioning that “one should come to the Olympics without the negative stuff we uncovered last season.” To check out the players who could take his team on the offensive, Bill flew to North America in late November to see Russian NHL stars in action – namely Washington Capitals’ Alex Ovechkin (at press time the NHL’s top scorer) and Pittsburgh Penguins’ Evgeny Malkin (who leads the NHL in assists). These two superstars, if they brought their A-game to Sochi, could make all the difference. Add to that Ilya Kovalchuk – et voila.

Of course, you need a solid goalie. And at press time Candidate Number 1, Semyon Varlamov of the Colorado Avalanche, was charged with third-degree assault on his Russian girlfriend and could face a two-year jail term and deportation (a verdict will be issued on January 22) .

Conclusions? Russia will not be content with anything less than gold in ice hockey. As Detroit Red Wings leader – and likely Olympic team captain – Pavel Datsyuk put it, “why go to Sochi in the first place if not to win?” Or, as figure skater Alexei Yagudin knowingly put it, “There are two planets in sports: the Olympiad and the rest.”

At press time, bookmakers gave Russia and Canada equal odds of winning the top prize.

Compulsory Program

Yagudin, who took gold in men’s singles skating at Salt Lake City in 2002, toyed with the idea of competing in Sochi, but an old injury got the better of him. His former arch rival, Yevgeny Plushenko, has not given up. A chance to heal the moral wound he received in Vancouver (Plushenko, who won silver in 2002 and gold in 2006, got only silver in 2010, losing to American Evan Lysacek who, unlike Plushenko, jumped no quads) has for now prevailed over his recurring back problems; at press-time he was still intent on skating in Sochi.

Yet, Plushenko – who seeks to become the only skater in men’s singles history to win medals at four different Olympiads – has put the bosses of the Russian Figure Skating Federation into something of a quandary. Due to Russia’s poor showing at last year’s World Championships, the team was given just one entry slot in men’s singles at Sochi, and it is not clear if Plushenko will be up to filling it. After recovering from back surgery Plushenko won a low-profile event in Riga, but then had to pull out of the Rostelecom Cup Grand Prix event in late November, citing a “micro-injury of his left knee.” It is not clear if he will be healthy enough to compete in February. “Zhenya can practice,” explained Plushenko’s coach Alexei Mishin, “but it was recommended that he take a break from competition.”

Standing in the wings is Maxim Kovtun, who finished second at the Rostelecom Cup. The protégé of renowned coach Tatiana Tarasova, Kovtun is the first Russian male since 2006 to qualify for a Grand Prix finals, and the only skater to jump two quads in his short program – arguably more complex than the one skated by the current leader of world men’s singles, Patrick Chan (Canada).

But the 18-year-old Kovtun is perhaps too young, too raw and too inconsistent to win over skating’s conservative judges. In this respect Plushenko – unless he pulls out – has a better chance of clinching a medal, most likely bronze or another silver, if he is impeccable. As Tarasova noted, in reference to her protégé Kovtun’s chances: “We are not competing with Yevgeny Plushenko over the only spot in the men’s event; Plushenko is beyond competition. We are just… moving forward.”

Then again, Kovtun has another shot at it: figure skaters will begin competing on February 6, a day before the opening ceremony, because in Sochi, for the first time, figure skating will feature a team event (like in gymnastics, where athletes compete in all events as a team, and then vie for medals as individuals).

Adelina Sotnikova.

A source close to the Russian Figure Skating Federation intimated that Russia could line up Plushenko first for the team event and ask for permission to replace him with Kovtun in individual events if Plushenko’s injured frame fails him. And the international figure skating bosses may well satisfy the unusual request of the host nation. So yes, if everything goes well, Yevgeny could win a medal. But another Olympic gold?

“There are many other pretenders,” Yagudin said. “Patrick Chan, three Japanese (including Takahuko Kodzuka)… Zhenya does have a chance, but it’s life, you can’t cheat it. There is the birth date in the passport, the body is getting old.”

In any case, Plushenko has two more attempts to show his stuff: at the nationals in December and at the European Championships in Budapest on January 13-19 (the final deadline for the announcement of the Russian figure skating lineup). That lineup will be set by the President of the Russian Figure Skating Federation, Alexander Gorshkov. Yes, that Gorshkov – the Soviet ice dancer who at the 1976 Innsbruck Olympics, partnering with Lyudmila Pakhomova, won the very first Olympic gold in ice dancing – an event the USSR and later Russia dominated for many years thereafter.

Not any longer. For now, Russia’s two top dancing duos cannot expect to vie for gold against 2010 Olympic champions Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir and 2010 Olympic silver medalists Meryl Davis and Charlie White. The up and coming duo of Elena Ilinykh and Nikita Katsalapov (who edged out the French hopefuls Nathalie Pechalat and Fabien Bourzat on their home ice this fall and got a standing ovation) are still too inexperienced. So are European Champions Ekaterina Bobrova and Dmitri Soloviev, who danced their way to gold at the Rostelecom Cup, leaving behind Olympic hopefuls Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje (Canada), while disappointing the experts with their error-strewn skating (Ekaterina even fell – very unusual in ice dancing).

In addition, local observers criticize coach Alexander Zhulin for not being focused enough, as he is split between his athletes and the numerous glitterati he trains in the lucrative TV show Lednikovy period (Ice Age), where former figure skaters partner with showbiz stars in a PRO-AM format.

In the women’s event, competition for Russia’s two Olympic slots is tough. There is 15-year-old Julia Lipnitskaya, who clinched the gold at Skate Canada and at Moscow’s Grand Prix event, defeating World Champion Carolina Kostner (Italy). There is also 15-year-old Anna Pogorilaya, who triumphed at the previous Grand Prix stage in China – with her superb jumps and a healthy irreverence vis-à-vis authorities. There is the silver medalist of the European Championships, Adelina Sotnikova, silver medalist in the World Championships Alena Leonova, and Elizaveta Tuktamysheva. As yet, none of these women seem to have the same class and poise as the now-retired Irina Slutskaya, so as to seriously threaten 2010 Olympic Champion Yuna Kim (South Korea) or 2010 Olympic silver medalist Mao Asada (Japan). Most observers predict these two to split Sochi’s gold and silver.

The more or less bankable gold for Russia in skating is in pairs. Second-best Olympic hopefuls Vera Bazarova and Juri Larionov might still vie for a bronze if they surpass themselves. But all eyes are set on the reigning world champions, the dynamic, newly-formed pair of Maxim Trankov and Tatiana Volosozhar. The pair has been pulling down record-breaking scores all year (as well as the season’s best result) and, barring disaster, may well make the stadium stand again for the Russian national anthem (now the same as the Soviet one). In Vancouver – with just Plushenko’s silver and Shabalin and Domnina’s bronze in ice dancing – it was the first time that the Russian or Soviet anthem was not heard in the figure-skating rink since 1964 (see story on the duo that started it all, page 46). At the four previous Winter Olympics (1994-2006) Russian/Soviet figure skaters won at least two golds (3 in 1994, 3 in 1998, 2 in 2002 and 3 in 2006). So at least one gold is de rigueur now.

Best of the Rest

President Putin has said he expects a solid performance from Russian athletes in Sochi “not just in those sports where we have been traditionally strong, but also in new ones.” Among the former, in addition to ice hockey and figure skating, there is cross-country skiing and biathlon; among the latter, curling and snowboard.

Snowboarding has been gaining in popularity in Russia in recent years. Not just because Ekaterina Ilyukhina won a silver medal in Vancouver in parallel giant slalom, but also because American-born snowboarder Vic (now Viktor) Wild is competing for Russia. In fact, he has vastly improved his results since he was naturalized in 2011 (through his marriage to Russian snowboarder Alena Zavarzina, 2011 World Champion and reigning champion of parallel giant slalom in Russia). Defending Russian colors, Wild took bronze in the parallel giant slalom at the 2013 FIS Snowboarding World Championships (his career-best result). The ex-American said he is intent on bringing Russia a gold in Sochi. “Vik is very motivated,” said snowboarding coach Denis Tikhomirov. “He established a rapport with the coaches; it’s nice to work with him. If only all athletes could have the same attitude. Wild is an athlete with a strong character and I think he picked the right team and a bright future awaits him.”

Bright or golden? “Even if, on top of his world bronze, Vik brings Russia just another bronze in Sochi, it would be very prikolno (funny, cool),” said Sports TV anchor Dmitry Guberniyev.

Then there is 26-year-old Yekaterina Tudegesheva. In 2007, at 19, she was Russia’s first snowboarding World Champion (parallel giant slalom). Last January she claimed a World gold in parallel slalom – Russia’s first gold in the pre-Olympic winter season. “We have a great snowboarding federation,” Tudegesheva said. “I got the right financial support and the right equipment, so it would be just silly not to convert it into results. Why not achieve top results? I have already won everything but the Olympics. Maybe, with God’s help, I can do it in Sochi as well? If I succeed, I will be the happiest person on earth.”

Tangible progress has been made in cross-country skiing. In March, Russia won two gold medals and three bronze at the Worlds – its best result since 2005. Nikita Kryukov, Olympic champion in Vancouver, won gold in the 1.5 km classical sprint and then in team sprint (with Alexei Petukhov) – making them Russia’s two main gold contenders in men’s skis. In women’s events, Yulia Chekaleva was bronze medalist in the 10 km individual race and was also part of the relay team with Yulia Ivanova, Aliya Iksanova and Maria Guschina that won the 4x5 km relay classic freestyle race.

Despite this progress, president of the Russian Ski Racing Federation Yelena Vialbe (a three-time Olympic champion) said there was nothing to “admire”: “It will be admirable when out of the 12 medals sets at least four go to Russia.”

Speed and Guns

According to the official medal plan, endorsed shortly before Vialbe came on board, Russia was expected to win 2 Olympic golds, 2 silver and 2 bronze medals in cross-country skiing. But Vialbe is more ambitious, saying 4 golds is possible: “In order to attain that goal, we are trying to form a team where every skier would not just enter any race but only the event they excel at.”

Speed skating is also expected to be medal-rich for Russia. Not yet on the scale of the epoch of Lidiya Skoblikova or Viktor Kosichkin,* but still... In Vancouver, Russia claimed only two medals in this sport, a silver and a bronze, both won by veteran Ivan Skobrev (5000m and 10,000m) who is preparing now for his fourth Olympics and is still a serious medal contender.

Meanwhile, over the last two years Russian speed skating has seen great improvements, such that in the 2013 World Championships Denis Uskov won gold in the 1500m race and Olga Fatkulina won the 1000m. The progress is largely attributed to the no-nonsense hands-on approach of the President of the Russian Speed Skating Union (RSKU) Alexei Kravtsov, 50, whose IT company Kraftway has become the RSKU’s general partner. Official budget figures are not disclosed, but it is common knowledge that domestic speed skaters have gotten everything they needed thanks to generous donations to the Sports Ministry by Kraftway.

Under Kravtsov’s tenure, short-track was also brought under his federation’s wing and is no longer considered a new sport in Russia. A smart manager, Kravtsov also proved a shrewd recruiter: he was behind the naturalization of former South Korean short-tracker and three-time Olympic champion Ahn Hyun Soo (who, after his naturalization in December 2011, became Viktor An). Ahn was injured and failed to qualify for South Korea’s Vancouver Olympics squad. Kravtsov “proposed” that Ahn join the Russian team and not only has the former Korean regained his form, he also won a gold for Russia in the 500m race at a recent World Cup stage. What is more, it has helped Russian short-trackers Semyon Yelistratov and Vladimir Grigoryev to train alongside Ahn.

“Two years ago no one would have thought Russia could win medals in short-track, but now we nurture medal hopes in all men’s short-track events and in a couple of women’s as well,” Kravtsov said.

All told – in both speed skating and short-track – Russia is planning for seven medals, including two golds. Kravtsov says it is not that unrealistic. “Sure, it is really hard to believe in it even now – especially with respect to gold medals, which are always tough to predict for sure. It is very ambitious and serious, but if you look at our results at the World Championships, we are fulfilling it.”

Another business mogul, oligarch and former presidential candidate (and owner of the New York Nets), Mikhail Prokhorov, has been the head of Russia’s biathlon federation since 2008. While the sport has benefited financially since he has been in charge, it has not translated into significant medal results. In 2012, while Prokhorov was running for president, Russia had its poorest showing ever at a biathlon World Championships (in Rupholding, Germany), winning just two bronze medals.

Clearly, it is not the coach that wins the medals, but some wonder if Prokhorov’s management style is having an effect on morale as well as performance. In 2011, in the middle of a disastrous relay race at the World Championships in Khanty-Mansiysk, Prokhorov fired women’s head coach Anatoly Khovantsev over the phone on live TV. His replacement, the famous German coach Wolfgang Pihler, had two lackluster seasons and was himself fired in April 2013.

The Russian men’s biathlon squad has been trained by Russian coaches (currently by Nikolai Lopukhov) and is doing slightly better than the women. Yevgeny Ustyugov is the defending Olympic champion in the mass-start 15 km race, while Anton Shipulin took bronze in the World Championships pursuit race.

After the 2012 biathlon disaster in Rupholding, Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko said “heads should roll in the Russian national biathlon team,” adding: “Unlike them, I do not fire anyone during a live broadcast.”

Prokhorov responded on April 18: “We have grown used to our universally popular minister with the telling last name.* When we have setbacks in specific sports, especially when things get tough in springtime, it traditionally happens that biathlon can run into a case of mutko.”

The next day, Russia’s business daily Kommersant published an article by Prokhorov in which he exposed Russia’s technical backwardness in biathlon and praised himself for having, over the past three years, developed “the right strategic structure for developing athletes.” For instance, in an effort to decentralize biathlon management, Prokhorov abolished the post of a single head coach for both the men’s and women’s biathlon teams, a move that drew fire from many Russian coaches.

Prokhorov’s verbal attack on Mutko did not pass unnoticed. His peer Yelena Vialbe called Prokhorov’s words about Vitaly Mutko “non-objective, not nice, tactless, and insulting in tone.” Soviet biathlon legend Alexander Tikhonov concurred, adding in his blog that Prokhorov’s biathlon largesse is spent “on maintaining an incredible number of managers, on car rental and visits to casinos, and on dining out.” Meanwhile, Tikhonov wrote, such elementary aspects of sports as team discipline and athletes’ compliance with individual plans leaves plenty to be desired. Players are breaking off and training alone, rather than as members of the team. In the first stage of the Biathlon World Cup 2013-14, held in late November in Esterlund (Sweden), Russia achieved just one medal: Olga Zaitseva took silver in the 7.5 km sprint.

Money, Money, Money…

Prokhorov’s management of biathlon demonstrates how Russian sports still finds itself caught between the centralized Soviet system of the past and a yet to be properly defined capitalist system. All those who wield power in sports throw money at problems (if they have it) and try to import expensive talent, but there is no coherent system for recruiting and training elite athletes long term.

“Playing or performing for your national team is not about money,” said Russian sports writer and photographer Robert Maximov, who has covered the Olympics since 1980. “It’s about passion, commitment and pride. Look at our leading jaded female tennis players – I have just returned from Cagliari (Italy), where the Russians were trashed 4-0 by the Italians in the finals of the Fed Cup – the women’s team world championships! Why? Because the Italians put together their best lineup, and all our top players preferred to play in more lucrative individual tournaments! Now look at our athletes in track and field. Our World gold medalists received just $60,000 in prize money! But look at how our race walkers sweated for that money! They have three practice sessions a day – starting at 7 a.m.!”

The Mountain Cluster

The Coastal Cluster

Domestic track and field could indeed serve as a model for many Russian sports. Seasoned, long-serving coaches are still running the show. Few have emigrated or gone abroad to train Russia’s competitors (unlike, say, in figure skating, where dozens of top coaches ended up in North America, like Igor Spilband, a former Soviet ice dancer who defected in January 1990 and has trained virtually all non-Russian top contenders for gold at Sochi).

What happens when a stable, highly-professional manager with proven expertise runs the show (such as the focused and committed, yet almost self-effacing, top-manager Valentin Balakhnichev), carefully preserving the best traditions of track and field by both securing adequate financing from the state while pursuing wise, well-balanced policies and patient work with coaches and athletes alike? This past summer Russia dominated the World Athletics Championships, earning seven gold medals and defeating the US for only the second time since the Soviet era.

In fact, if Russia were to glean seven gold medals in Sochi, many Russian sports fans would feel we are blessed. After all, that would be 250 percent better than 2010. The damage for the state budget would amount to a cool R28 million (or R100 million or so if the 7 top awards included a hockey gold). But, as the past four years at least have shown, psychological damage is harder to repair than economic. RL

NOTES:

1. From 1963 to 1990, the Soviet Union dominated international hockey, winning all but five World Championships in the 18-year span. Similarly, the Soviet hockey team took gold in every Olympics from 1956-1992, except for the two instances (1960 and 1980) when it lost to the US on its home turf. In the 22 years since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian men’s hockey has only medaled in the Olympics twice, and has won the World Championship four times.