Happy New Year?

The people always have some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness ... This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.

— Plato, The Republic

It would be fascinating—if it were not so scary—to watch how fast Russians have fallen in line to support their new prime minister, Vladimir Putin. A political nobody just a few months ago, Putin has been “nursed to greatness” at a phenomenal pace by a public that (we are told) craves a strong, decisive leader—a “protector”—in the Kremlin.

He owes his rise not to a bettering of the economy (the rise in world oil prices are taking care of that) or an ability to tackle difficult social problems. Instead, Putin’s popularity rests solely on his ability to successfully bomb Russian territory—Chechnya. The ostensible justification is to root out terrorists who, it is likely but not proven, blew up residential buildings in the Russian heartland.

An important lesson of Vietnam and Afghanistan was that bombs cannot stop guerilla terrorism or change hearts and minds. Chechnya may end up the exception that proves the rule, but it does seem a rather tenuous basis upon which to found one’s political legitimacy. For if the conflict starts to go sour, if, heaven forbid, another apartment building is blown up during or after the conflict, the political and military alternatives are as uncertain as they are unthinkable. And, lest we forget the most horrible aspect of this situation:  thousands of innocent civilians are being displaced and thousands of human beings are being killed.

A second disturbing aspect of the current Chechnya conflict is the unwillingness of most any political player in Russia to question the military operation at any level. If the authority of the crown prince comes to depend on the absence of dissent (witness the Kremlin’s no-holds-barred attacks on political challengers Moscow Mayor Luzhkov and former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, both former darlings of public opinion), we really ought to start worrying about what will happen after the succession.

Finally, Russia’s growing isolation from the West, and the US in particular, is disturbing. As this issue was going to press, President Yeltsin was jetting off to a hastily arranged summit in China. While it may be useful to gain further support from the leader of over a billion people, it would be more significant to gain support from leaders of countries that have a less spotty record on human rights.

Perhaps by the time this column is read in early 2000 (hopefully not by candlelight), the conflict in Chechnya will have been settled peacefully. But as this column is being written, Russian military commanders are dropping flyers on  the civilian population of Grozny, telling them to “evacuate or face bombardment,” while denying that this is any sort of ultimatum. A peaceful outcome does not seem in the offing.

For someone who has a special feeling for Russia, it is difficult to watch these events unfold. But it would be wrong to keep silent for fear that criticism could be interpreted as betrayal. Russia is letting itself be dragged down a dangerous path in Chechnya, one that does not bode well for its internal or external affairs. No matter the outcome, it is a sad way to begin a new millennium.

We hope that this issue, one of our most eclectic yet—with pop stars, painters and Perm, finds you well. Happy New Year!